Moore Information

Public Opinion Research

May 19, 2004

As the 2004 general election draws near, and campaigns begin to identify potential supporters, we thought it would be useful to share some information about the one key group likely to make the difference between victory and defeat on November 2 nd for a number of candidates – the Unaffiliated Voter.

Partisan Behavior

Today, unaffiliated voters make up 25% of the Oregon electorate (another 36% of registered voters are Republicans, and 39% are Democrats). Behaviorally, when you look at past voting elections and how unaffiliated voters have actually voted, about 33% of them are truly unaffiliated, while 39% are more Democrat, and 28% more Republican.

There are significant differences in the partisan leanings of unaffiliated voters between Multnomah County and the rest of the state. In Multnomah County , 15% of unaffiliated voters lean Republican, while 57% lean Democrat and 25% are truly unaffiliated. But the partisan gap elsewhere is much narrower. For example, in Washington and Clackamas Counties , 34% lean Republican, 37% Democrat, and 26% are unaffiliated. In the Willamette Valley , 30% are Republican, 37% are Democrat, and 28% are unaffiliated and elsewhere in the state 29% are Republican, 31% are Democrat, and 34% are unaffiliated.

Unaffiliated Voters Lean Democrat in Multnomah County

Philosophy of Unaffiliated Voters

Philosophically, when unaffiliated voters are asked whether they consider themselves to be Conservative, Moderate or Liberal on political issues, 23% say they are Conservative, 39% say they are Moderate, and 28% say they are Liberal. By comparison, the wide majority of Republicans say they are Conservative (58% Conservative, 32% Moderate, 6% Liberal), and Democrats are most likely to fall into the “Moderate” category (14% Conservative, 43% Moderate, 38% Liberal).

Again, unaffiliated voters in Multnomah County are philosophically much different than unaffiliated voters elsewhere in the state. For example, in Multnomah County , 45% of unaffiliated voters say they are “Liberal,” while that number drops to 20% in Clackamas and Washington Counties . The number of unaffiliated voters stands at 24% in the Willamette Valley and 26% elsewhere in the state.

The same pattern holds true among Democrats – the further from Multnomah County , the less likely Democrats are to describe themselves as Liberal. On the contrary, however, Republicans' philosophy is consistently described as “Conservative” throughout the state, with roughly 60% of GOP voters in all major regions describing themselves as Conservative.

Unaffiliated Voters' Philosophy By Area

Unaffiliated Voter Turnout

In looking at the four most recent general elections (1996-2002), we find that unaffiliated voters have made up between 17% and 21% of total voter turnout. And we know that this group turns out in higher numbers during presidential voting years, although they do not necessarily represent a higher percentage of the electorate. Looking forward to 2004, we expect the unaffiliated voter proportion of the turnout in this election will be closer to the 2000 levels of 20-22%.

Voter Turnout: Historic Trends

Today, unaffiliated voters are more concerned about jobs and the economy than anything else (tracking closely with the GOP when it comes to issue concerns), and are pessimistic about the direction that Oregon is headed. These voters are looking for candidates who will address the issues about which they care deeply. They are less concerned about the partisan label than they are about how a candidate will improve their lives.

If you have been forwarded this email and wish to receive future updates directly, please fill out the appropriate contact information at www.moore-info.com/Contact.php .

If any technical difficulties are experienced during this email transmission, please reply to this message with a description of the problem. If you have received this email in error or wish to be removed from future MI Poll Updates, please reply to this message with the subject line: REMOVE FROM MI POLL UPDATES or email Moore@moore-info.com with the subject line: REMOVE. Thank you.