Moore Information

Public Opinion Research

August 20, 2004

Bush Now Trails in Washington, but Laura Bush is The Preference for First Lady

A recent poll conducted by Moore Information shows Laura Bush is the preferred First Lady over Teresa Heinz Kerry, edging Heinz Kerry out by a 7-point margin. Indeed, 45% would prefer Mrs. Bush, while 38% would prefer Mrs. Heinz Kerry. We find a major divide along partisan lines, with Republicans preferring Laura Bush, 86% to 4%, and Democrats preferring Heinz Kerry, 74-10%. Among Independent voters, however, Laura Bush is the clear favorite today (45% to 24%). Interestingly, there is also a gender gap on the First Lady question – men of all ages prefer Laura Bush, but women are divided between the two. Regionally, Laura Bush is the preferred First Lady in Eastern Washington , and in the Central Puget Sound region, outside the City of Seattle . Seattle voters prefer Heinz Kerry, and voters in the rest of Western Washington are divided.

“Who would you rather have as First Lady of the United States , Laura Bush or Teresa Heinz Kerry?”

Looking at results of the Presidential ballot, we find the Bush/Cheney ticket trailing Kerry/Edwards, 44% to 50% today. The Nader/Camejo ticket receives just 4% of the vote today and only 2% are undecided. By comparison, in June, our poll showed the race a statistical dead heat, with President Bush and John Kerry each earning 43% of the vote, while 4% favored third-party candidate Ralph Nader.

Regionally, Bush is most widely supported in Eastern Washington where he leads 53% to 41%. West of the Cascades, we find voters in the Puget Sound region outside the city of Seattle are mostly divided, and Kerry has a significant lead inside the city of Seattle (66% to 24%). In the rest of Western Washington Kerry holds a 14-point advantage today (54% to 40%). By party, Republicans and Democrats are showing equal loyalty to their party's candidates. Among Independents, Kerry now has an 8 point lead (this group was divided in June). And while in June, Bush was favored among men of all ages, today Bush leads with men age 55 and older, but younger men are divided. Women of all ages continue to favor Kerry.

“If the general election for President and Vice President were held today and the candidates were, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, Democrats and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, Independents, for whom would you vote?”

* less than one half of one percent

This memo contains results of a telephone survey conducted August 14-15, 2004 among a representative sample of 600 voters in Washington state. The surveys were conducted by Moore Information, Inc. The sampling error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.