Following
are results of a statewide telephone voter survey conducted by
Moore Information, Inc. The survey was conducted June 17-18, 2009
among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Arizona.
The potential sampling error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence
level.
Arizona Budget Woes – Who is to Blame?
In the event that the legislature and governor are unable to reach
a budget agreement and the state is forced to shut down portions
of government, the legislature, rather than Governor Brewer, will
bear the brunt of public blame. Should this scenario come to pass,
54% of the state’s voters would blame the legislature, while
only 13% would blame the Governor, and 18% would blame both. The
remaining 15% has no opinion. Analysis of subgroup data shows
that Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike would blame
the legislature rather than the Governor.
Who is to Blame for the
Budget Deficit?
“As you may know, the
2010 fiscal year starts on July 1st of this year. If a budget
is not approved by that date, Arizona may see portions of state
government shut down until a budget fix can be reached. In this
case, who do you think would be responsible for causing the shutdown?”
The Governor’s
Sales Tax Proposal
The Governor’s proposal for
a temporary sales tax increase to address the budget deficit finds
majority support in the state today. A temporary, three-year,
one percentage point increase in the state sales tax is favored
53% to 42%, with 5% undecided.
And, after voters hear additional details about the Governor’s
proposal, the margin of support widens to better than two-to-one
(64% favor, 30% oppose, 6% undecided). If this proposal were put
to the voters for approval, we would likely see a competitive
initiative campaign. Historically speaking, ballot measures generating
60% support in initial polling are likely to be competitive and
have a decent chance of passage on Election Day. Today, support
for the Governor’s sales tax proposal is largely a function
of partisanship – the proposal finds widespread support
from Democrats and Independents, but Republicans are less enthused.
The Governor’s Sales
Tax Proposal (Educated Test)
“Governor Brewer has
proposed a budget to fill the $4 billion budget shortfall. Brewer's
plan includes nearly $1 billion in spending reductions, using
more than $800 million in federal stimulus, about $750 million
in financing. The final element of the plan is a temporary, one
percentage point increase in the state sales tax, dedicated to
education, public safety, and health care. The increase is expected
to generate about $1 billion a year and would expire after 36
months. This increase in the sales tax would likely be presented
to the voters for approval.
After hearing this, would you vote yes or no to support a temporary,
one percentage point increase in the state sales tax, dedicated
to education, public safety, and health care?”
If voters were
to decide how to deal with the budget deficit, we would likely
see a solution that contained both spending cuts in
state government programs, along with tax increases. Indeed,
fully 62% of Arizona voters would prefer an approach that includes
a combination of tax increases and spending cuts, while just
10% would prefer a tax increase-only solution and 21% would
like to see the budget problem solved solely through spending
cuts. The remaining 7% has no opinion. Importantly, there is
widespread preference for a mixed-approach of spending cuts
and tax increases among Republicans, Democrats and Independents,
alike.
Preferred
Budget Solution: Spending Cuts And Tax Increases
“Arizona’s state budget deficit is higher, relative
to the size of the State, than any other state budget in the
country. The budget shortfall for 2010 is estimated to be nearly
$4 billion. Over 80% of the state’s General Fund budget
is spent on K through 12 education, health care for the poor,
funding for our state’s universities, and paying for public
safety. The other 20% of the budget is generally spent on health
services, economic security and general government functions
like parks and regulatory agencies. Thinking about the 2010
budget deficit, do you prefer an approach that addresses the
deficit through …”
So, what about
additional proposed solutions to the state’s budget woes?
Our poll finds little traction on any of the eight other potential
deficit reduction solutions tested in our survey. In fact, none
of the eight proposals tested finds majority support from Arizona
voters. The most popular concept tested, introduced by the legislature
but also a component of the Governor’s plan, would “privatize
state prisons raising $495 million by mortgaging prisons, including
health care services, and another $100 million through concession
agreements.” However, only 39% of voters find this to
be an “acceptable” solution. In fact, no other proposal
was deemed acceptable by more than 30% of voters, and three
of the proposals generated majority opposition. These include
the Democrat proposal to increase property taxes (54% unacceptable),
the legislature proposal to take $90 million from the state
university system through budget cuts and sweeping funds (54%
unacceptable), and the Republican proposal to cut $220 million
from K-12 education (74% unacceptable).
Budget
Proposals
“Please tell me how
acceptable you find each of the following as a way to help eliminate
next year’s deficit, using a 5-point scale where five
means very acceptable, four means somewhat acceptable, three
is a neutral point, two is somewhat unacceptable, and one means
not acceptable at all.”
The
Future’s Not so Bright
Like the rest of the country,
Arizona voters have a pessimistic outlook about the direction
of things in their state – today, only 29% say things
in Arizona are headed in the “right direction.”
This common barometer of public mood is often a good indicator
of the public’s demand for “change” –
the more pessimistic the environment, the more likely voters
are to be voting for change. This call for change typically
spells tough times for incumbent office holders, and potential
opportunity for statewide ballot initiatives that offer voters
solutions. Today, Arizona Democrats are most likely to be in
a bad mood, but pessimism prevails among Republicans and Independents,
although to a lesser extent.
Voter
Mood
“In general, would you say that the State of Arizona
is heading in the right direction, or off on the wrong track?”
In terms of
issues, the biggest challenges facing the state today according
to the voters are the budget deficit, immigration and education.
In a closed-ended question containing seven major issue concerns,
the budget deficit (28%), immigration (27%) and education (22%)
top the list. Of lesser concern, by comparison, are health care
(10%), water issues (4%) taxes (3%) and transportation (1%).
We find that the deficit tops the list among Republicans, Independents
and Democrats, alike. However, Republicans and Independents
are equally concerned about immigration, while for Democrats,
the deficit shares the spotlight with concerns about education.
Regionally, immigration is the leading issue outside of Maricopa
and Pima Counties, while the deficit is the major issue for
Maricopa County voters, and Pima County voters are equally concerned
about education, immigration and the deficit. Among senior voters
(age 65 and older), immigration trumps all other concerns.
Issue
Priorities
“Which one of the following do you consider the largest
challenge facing the State of Arizona today?”
Governor
Brewer is More Popular than the Legislature
Governor Brewer is more popular in the state than the state
legislature today, as her job approval ratio is 37% approve,
27% disapprove, 36% no opinion. At the same time, the state
legislature has a net-negative approval rating, with just 27%
approving of the job the legislature is doing, 42% disapproving
and 31% having no opinion.
Governor
and State Legislature Job Approval Ratings
“Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job
the following individual and organization are doing. If you
have no opinion or have never heard of the individual or organization,
just say so.”
About
Moore Information, Inc.
Moore Information is a leading national opinion research and
strategic analysis firm, serving a wide spectrum of clients
in politics, government, and corporate and public affairs. Founded
in 1981, Moore Information has offices in Portland, Oregon and
the Washington, D.C. area. We provide accurate, thorough and
timely opinion research and strategic analysis to a wide spectrum
of clients at the local, state and national levels. The outstanding
accuracy and quality of our research has earned us a reputation
as one of the leading and most respected polling firms in the
nation.
For additional information
about the poll, question language and additional strategic analysis
of results, please contact Bob Moore or visit our website at
www.moore-info.com.
To view previous Moore Insights,
please go to www.moore-info.com/mooreinsights
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