So many Democrats … so
much time until the Primary. If you asked a Gubernatorial ballot
test in Oregon today, what you would get is the winner of a popularity
contest, not necessarily the strongest candidate. So, rather than
ask Oregon voters a series of potential Primary and General Election
match-ups at this early stage and pitting one Democrat hopeful
against the other, we asked a series of image scores to gain a
better understanding of how each candidate is viewed among voters
across the geographic and political spectrums, among Democrats
and Republicans alike, and among those pesky Independents too.
And with this understanding, we hope to have a better idea of
the strongest Democrat candidate for Governor in 2010.
We tested four of the most talked about names who have indicated,
or who others have indicated, could or should make a run for Governor.
John Kitzhaber and Peter DeFazio have the most positive image
scores statewide today, while voters are less likely to be aware
of or have an opinion about Bill Bradbury, and Steve Novick is
a virtual unknown.
Kitzhaber and DeFazio enjoy very similar favorable/unfavorable
ratios of more than two-to-one, while voters who are familiar
enough with Bradbury to have an opinion about him are favorable
by a three-to-one ratio. Novick’s image is positive, but
with eight-in-ten having no opinion or unaware of him, he is not
really a consideration when compared to the others.
Images of Potential Democrat
Gubernatorial Candidates
“Here are the names of some people in the
news. Please tell me if you have a very favorable, a somewhat favorable,
a somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of each. If
you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say
so.”
With an eye towards the Democrat
Primary, Kitzhaber and DeFazio have similar image scores among the
party faithful, and we could expect a very competitive contest if
they both entered the race, with a possible bruised Primary victor
served up to the GOP candidate in the General.
Looking ahead to the General Election, we are going to give the
“strongest Democrat candidate today” award to Peter
DeFazio. Why? Although Kitzhaber has a slightly better image score
than DeFazio among Independents, Republicans are more negative about
Kitzhaber than they are about DeFazio. And naysayers who think DeFazio
is a non-starter as a candidate outside of his district are in for
a surprise. Although he is less well known than Kitzhaber in the
Portland metro area, DeFazio’s image holds up nicely in Multnomah,
Clackamas and Washington Counties, while Kitzhaber’s unfavorable
ratings hover around 25% everywhere outside of Multnomah County.
Image Scores: By Party and
Region
Data reported are from a telephone survey
conducted by Moore Information, Inc. April 7-8, 2009 among a representative
sample of 500 voters statewide. The potential sampling error is
plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.
Moore Information is a premier opinion research
and strategic analysis firm specializing in politics, government
and public affairs. We offer our clients and friends insight and
information on key issues and measurements on a regular basis, sharing
our interpretations and strategic analyses of the data.
If you wish to receive additional information regarding
this Moore Insight or receive future Moore Insights, please contact
us at www.moore-info.com/contactus.
To view previous Moore Insights, please go to www.moore-info.com/mooreinsights
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