With former Governor John Kitzhaber
the presumed heir apparent in his effort to return to the Governor’s
mansion, little attention has been given to the Republican candidates
lining up to take on the popular Democrat. However, our recent
poll suggests Kitzhaber’s re-emergence into the limelight
might not be as easy as some would have you believe.
In our February 20-21 poll (N=500 registered voters, statewide),
we tested the two leading GOP candidates in head to head match
ups with Kitzhaber. While Kitzhaber is arguably one of the most
well-known political figures in the state, his GOP rivals Chris
Dudley and Allen Alley are nowhere near as popular. But despite
the significant name ID advantage, Kitzhaber receives well under
50% support in both match ups against Alley and Dudley, and the
two GOPs do equally well against the former Governor. As the following
table illustrates, Kitzhaber gets 45% in both matchups, while
Dudley and Alley both get an identical 33% and approximately one-in-five
voters are undecided about this contest today.
Today, geography and partisanship are
the driving forces in support for all candidates in this race.
In Multnomah County, Kitzhaber is the clear favorite in both match
ups, where he receives majority support, but he leads by only
a narrow plurality in Washington and Clackamas Counties, as well
as in the Willamette Valley. However, the race is a dead heat
elsewhere in the state. By party, Democrats are showing more loyalty
to Kitzhaber today than Republicans are to either Dudley or Alley.
Among Independents, Kitzhaber is the plurality favorite against
both GOP contenders.
The survey was conducted February 20-21,
2010 among a representative sample of 500 registered voters statewide.
The potential sampling error is +/-4% at the 95% confidence level.
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and public affairs. We offer our clients and friends insight and
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our interpretations and strategic analyses of the data.
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