While some political pundits
and Democrat leaders would have you believe that Oregon Republican
candidates have no future in statewide office, in fact, the 2010
race for Governor will be competitive, as our latest poll shows.
We matched Republican Congressman
Greg Walden against three of the leading potential Democrat candidates,
and find Walden within four points of both John Kitzhaber and
Peter DeFazio, and Walden actually leading Bill Bradbury by a
four-point margin today. Statistically speaking, these results
are within the margin of error associated with this sample size
(+/- 4% at the 95% confidence level).
2010 Gubernatorial Match-ups
Importantly, Walden is enjoying
the same level or greater party loyalty as the Democrat candidates
are among their party faithful. Among the GOP, Walden’s net support
against Kitzhaber is +66 points, against DeFazio he has a 58-point
margin and against Bradbury, the GOP margin of support is +63
points. Likewise, among Democrats, Kitzhaber’s margin is 57 points
over Walden, while DeFazio’s margin is 56 points and Bradbury’s
margin over Walden is only 44 points among Democrats. Independents
are divided in both the Walden/Kitzhaber and Walden/DeFazio matchups,
but Walden has a 14-point advantage with Independents when paired
against Bill Bradbury.
Walden vs. Democrat Candidate
– By Party
Regionally, Walden is the favorite
in all three matchups among voters residing in the Eastern,
Southern and Coastal regions of the state, while the Democrats
are favored in the Portland tri-county region, with Multnomah
County being the greatest source of support for Democrat candidates.
In the Willamette Valley, however, Walden is in a statistical
dead heat against both DeFazio and Kitzhaber, and leads Bradbury
in this region by 10 points. Please feel free to call or email
with any questions.
These data are from a telephone survey conducted
by Moore Information, Inc. The survey was conducted June 2-3,
2009 among a representative sample of 506 registered voters statewide.
The potential sampling error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence
level.
Moore Information is a premier opinion research
and strategic analysis firm specializing in politics, government
and public affairs. We offer our clients and friends insight and
information on key issues and measurements on a regular basis, sharing
our interpretations and strategic analyses of the data.
If you wish to receive additional information regarding
this Moore Insight or receive future Moore Insights, please contact
us at www.moore-info.com/contactus.
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