Notes on Oregon’s
Electorate:
More
Liberal than U.S.A. Voters
Are Independents Really
Independent?
A recent analysis of the Oregon
electorate from a compilation of polls conducted between September
28 and November 2, 2008 shows the Oregon electorate leans left,
compared to the national electorate.
In polling, voters are given an opportunity to describe themselves
as Conservative, Moderate or Liberal as a way to associate them
with a particular set of beliefs. While these labels have many
meanings in society today, they are often a useful indicator in
polling as to how voters regard and react to issues and candidates.
Compared with national exit polls on ideology, Oregonians are
more likely to consider themselves Liberal than voters nationwide
(28% Liberal in Oregon, 22% nationwide), and less likely to describe
themselves as “Moderate” (32% in Oregon, 44% nationwide).
The percentage describing themselves as “Conservative”
are consistent (34% Conservative in Oregon and nationwide).
Voter Ideology –
Oregon vs. U.S.A.
“If you had to label yourself, would you say you are
a Liberal, Moderate or Conservative in your political beliefs?”
The Geographic Divide
The Oregon electorate is very typical of most states
in that urban centers (Multnomah County/Portland) are the bastions
of liberalism. In fact, nearly half of Multnomah County voters
define themselves as Liberals (46%). The Portland suburbs (Clackamas
and Washington Counties) are a mixed bag ideologically, while
Southern, Eastern and Coastal Oregonians are more likely to affiliate
themselves with the Conservative label.
Philosophical Differences by Party
The analysis of voter ideology gets interesting when
we look at the correlation between voter party registration, and
personal political philosophy. For example, Republicans (32% of
the state’s registered voters) are philosophically cohesive,
with fully 71% of Oregon GOPs describing themselves as “Conservative.”
Democrats (43% of the state’s registered voters), on the
other hand, while clearly leaning left of center (49% describe
themselves as "Liberal"), are more willing to linger
in the middle, as 35% of Democrats describe themselves as “Moderate.”
Oregon’s non-affiliated/Independent voters (25% of the electorate)
are most likely to consider themselves Moderate, and the remaining
Independents are divided between the Liberal and Conservative
labels.
Age and Gender
Beyond the correlations between voters’ partisanship
and ideology, there are also some trends in voter philosophy by
age and gender. Younger men and women (age 18-44) are more likely
to affiliate with the Liberal label, while older men are more
likely to find themselves in the center or right of center, and
older women are only slightly more likely to align themselves
with the Conservative label than the Moderate or Liberal ideologies.
Profile of Oregon Voters
by Ideology
Oregon’s Independents
Aren’t so Independent After All
Whether they are registered as Republican or Democrat, Oregon’s
partisans stick closely to their respective parties when it comes
time to cast their ballots. Specifically, 74% of registered Republicans
say they vote Republican (53% usually vote Republican, 20% always
vote Republican), while 75% of registered Democrats say they vote
Democrat (53% usually vote Democrat, 22% always vote Democrat).
Independent voters, however, behave much more like Democrats when
it comes to their actual voting behavior - 33% of Independent
voters in the state say they truly do “split” the
ticket more often than not, but the balance is heavily weighted
to Democrats, as 34% say they usually vote for Democrats, while
only 18% usually vote for Republicans.
Looking more closely at the voting behavior
of Independents, we uncover several notable findings. In Multnomah
County, the Independents behave largely as Democrats when it comes
to voting, with the majority voting for “mostly or only”
Democrats (54%). As we move out to the suburbs in Washington and
Clackamas Counties, only a plurality of Independents there are
true ticket splitters (47%), but the balance lean Democrat by
a significant margin (34% vote Democrat, 19% vote GOP). In the
rest of the state, the majority are true ticket splitters, but
only in Southern Oregon do we find the balance leaning more toward
the GOP.
Among Independent voters, there are no significant differences
with regard to gender, however, by age, younger Independent voters
(18-44) are most likely to vote Democrat, while Independent voters
age 45+ are most likely to be ticket splitters. The following
table illustrates these findings.
Profile of Independent
Oregon Voters by Voting Behavior
Data reported are from telephone
surveys conducted by Moore Information, Inc., September 28-November
2, 2008, among representative samples of 5,700 Oregon voters. The
potential sampling error is plus or minus 1.3% at the 95% confidence
level. Party distribution: 39% Republican, 43% Democrat, 23% Independent.
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and strategic analysis firm specializing in politics, government
and public affairs. We offer our clients and friends insight and
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