Our recent survey of Washington
voters finds the electorate in a sour mood, largely fueled by
the state of the economy. Today, a 51% majority of the state’s
voters describe things in Washington as headed “off on the
wrong track,” while just 37% say things are headed in the
“right direction.” The remaining 12% has no opinion.
Historically, voter “mood” is directly correlated
with the state of the economy – in good economic times,
optimism soars, and in bad economic times, hopes fade.
Today’s sentiment is the most negative we have seen since
January 2005 (35% right direction, 51% wrong track). The lowest
point was in June 2003, when fully 65% of voters said things in
the state were off on the “wrong track.”
Looking at mood by subgroup, we find pessimism increases the further
we get from Seattle – while Seattle voters are still in
a relatively good mood, all things considered (58% right direction,
27% wrong track), voters in King County outside the city of Seattle
are divided, and there is majority negative sentiment in the rest
of the state. By party, we find Democrats are widely optimistic
in their current outlook (61% right direction, 25% wrong track),
while pessimism prevails nearly three-to-one among Independents
(24% right direction, 61% wrong track), and Republicans are in
the foulest of moods (14% right direction, 78% wrong track). Additionally,
by age, we find younger voters holding on to a positive outlook
(54%/34%), while those age 35 and older are seeing things in a
more negative perspective (32%/56%).
Washington Voter Mood:
Historic Trends
“Would you say things in Washington State
are generally headed in the right direction, or would you say things
have pretty much gotten off on the wrong track?”
Washington Voter Mood: Key
Subgroups
Top of Mind Issue Concerns
As we are seeing all over the
country, the top of mind concern among Washington voters today
is the economy. In fact, in an open-ended question, fully 51%
cite the economy or jobs as their leading issue concern today.
No other issue even comes close to this level of worry –
the second highest mention is taxes at 9%, followed by concerns
about education (8%), the budget deficit (6%) health care (5%),
traffic/transportation (3%) and government waste (3%). The economy
tops the list among all voter subgroups today.
Looking back to similar points in time, in 2003 when pessimism
in the state was at an historically high level, perceptions
of the major problems of the day were much less likely to be
a focus of the economy and more evenly shared among several
major issues. At that time, 28% were concerned about jobs/economy
(compared to 51% today), followed by traffic/transportation
(17%), taxes (9%), education (10%), budget issues (4%) and health
care (3%). Clearly, concerns about transportation has taken
a back seat to pocketbook issues since 2003, and while economic
concerns were dominant in 2003, they are not nearly as pronounced
as today.
Most Important Issue
Facing Washington
“What, in your opinion, is the most important
issue facing people in Washington State today?”
Outlook
Mood is often an indicator of election outcome.
Incumbent officeholders typically fare better when voters are
in a positive state of mind collectively, but are vulnerable
when the majority believes things are off on the wrong track.
A good national example of this correlation is in both the 2006
and 2008 elections. In both cases, most voters felt the country
was off on the wrong track and Democrats gained control of the
House (2006), and the Presidency (2008). If current pessimism
continues and the economy does not start to experience some
sort of turnaround, Republicans could stand to benefit come
the 2010 elections.
Please feel free to call or email with any
questions.
Bob Moore Bobm@moore-info.com
503.221.3100
Hans Kaiser Hansk@moore-info.com
410.216.9856
Data reported are from a telephone survey
conducted April 4-5, 2009 by Moore Information, Inc., among a
representative sample of 500 voters in Washington State. Potential
sampling error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.
Party distribution: 40% Republican, 46% Democrat, 14% Independent/other.
Moore Information is a premier opinion research
and strategic analysis firm specializing in politics, government
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