Ten days
ago, Republican candidates emerged victorious in hotly contested
elections for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Since that
time, there has been considerable speculation and debate by national
political pundits and the party faithful on both sides about whether
or not these elections signaled a partisan sea change among American
voters. One year, almost to the day, following the historic election
of Barack Obama to the White House and significant losses among
the GOP nationwide, Republicans emerged victorious in the country’s
only odd-year gubernatorial races, and down-ticket GOP candidates
were elected in local elections in cities and counties throughout
the country.
Although this
is not the first time the “out of power” party has
won in these odd-year elections, with the President’s approval
ratings falling and voters’ continuing discontent and worry
about the national economy, this year’s results beg the
question – is there a Republican resurrection underway?
With the inclusion of the most recent Gallup poll showing Republicans
now leading the generic Congressional ballot test, 46% to 44%,
after trailing for years it looks like a possibility.
We think Washington
State’s high profile gubernatorial race between Christine
Gregoire and Dino Rossi provides insight into whether the political
mindset in the Evergreen State has shifted, and perhaps even sheds
some light on the question of whether last week’s GOP wins
were an indication of things to come, or just localized politics
playing out.
As you
remember, the Rossi v. Gregoire contest began in the memorable
election of 2004, tarred with two recounts and a 133 vote victory
for Gregoire. This matchup was played out again in 2008, when
Gregoire was elected to a second term by a 53% to 47% margin.
Moore information polled for both the 2004 and 2008 Rossi campaigns
and it is our belief that Rossi’s loss in ’08 (like
many other GOP hopefuls that year) was heavily impacted by the
national mood and the “Obama Factor.” In our last
poll for the Rossi campaign (October 28, 2008), Rossi trailed
Gregoire by five percentage points (47% Gregoire, 42% Rossi).
Earlier this week, we conducted a statewide survey in which we
asked voters how they would vote in that same contest if the election
were held today, and the results provide convincing evidence of
a shift in partisan preferences. Today, Rossi is supported by
48% of Washington voters, compared to 42% for Gregoire, while
10% are undecided.
Gubernatorial Race: 2008
Election vs. November ’09 Poll
The fact that Rossi leads in
this match-up is interesting and encouraging for Republicans in
and of itself, but an even bigger story lies in the makeup of
his support today, compared to one year ago. In this poll, Rossi
leads Gregoire 90% to 4% among Republican voters, which is very
similar to the results from our last 2008 survey for the Rossi
campaign. However, today among Independents, Rossi holds nearly
a two-to-one lead (49% to 26%). In our final survey of the 2008
campaign, Rossi and Gregoire were in a dead heat among these voters.
Further Gregoire has also lost steam in the past year among Democrats.
In our recent poll, Gregoire is getting 81% of Democrats overall,
but there is a significant gap between the strong Democrats, who
support Gregoire 86% to 9%, and the soft Democrats, who are supporting
her by a much narrower 66% to 21% margin. By comparison, in our
last 2008 poll just before her reelection, Gregoire’s margin
among soft Democrats was 71% to 19%, and she led among loyal Democrats,
86% to 6%.
Will 2010 be another 1994 for the GOP? Maybe. But these data certainly
make it appear possible.
The most recent data reported are from a
telephone survey conducted by Moore Information, Inc. November
8-9, 2009 among a representative sample of 500 voters statewide.
The potential sampling error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence
level.
Moore Information is a premier opinion research
and strategic analysis firm specializing in politics, government
and public affairs. We offer our clients and friends insight and
information on key issues and measurements on a regular basis, sharing
our interpretations and strategic analyses of the data.
If you wish to receive additional information regarding
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us at www.moore-info.com/contactus.
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