GOP Polls: Schrader Trails, Sanchez Tied With Tran
October 18, 2010
By Jeremy P. Jacobs in NationalJournal
Republicans are increasingly bullish on picking up the seats of Reps. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Kurt Schrader (D-OR) based on recent campaign polling.
Internal campaign polls obtained by Hotline On Call show Sanchez to be tied with Assemblyman Van Tran (R) at 39%. The fact that Sanchez is polling below the 40 percent mark is a troubling sign for a 7-term incumbent, Republicans argue.
Another internal poll shows Schrader trailing state Rep. Scott Bruun by a four-point margin, 44% to 40%.
As usual, internal polls should be taken with the appropriate context. Candidates tend to perform better in their own polls, especially those leaked to the media.
Even so, these polls are very good signs for the GOP. Sanchez was originally considered vulnerable, then several missteps by Tran moved this race firmly into the Democratic column. The Cook Political Report currently ranks this race as Lean Democratic. Pres. Bill Clinton stumped for Sanchez last week.
And the Schrader-Bruun match up is quickly becoming one of the top tier toss up races of the cycle. Both the DCCC and the NRCC are spending heavily on this race.
Tran’s poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies Oct. 13 to 14. It surveyed 300 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.
Bruun’s poll was conducted Oct. 13 to 14 by Moore Information. It polled 300 likely voters and also has a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.
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