Republican Raul Labrador’s poll shows Idaho Democrat Walt Minnick leads in 1st District race
July 16, 2010
By Dan Popkey in IdahoStatesman
Republican Raul Labrador’s new pollster says Labrador trails Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick 37 percent to 27 percent because he’s less well-known than the incumbent.
“If Labrador is able to increase voters’ awareness of him and contrast his image with Minnick’s, he will be in a very good position to win the seat in November,” write pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser in a memo released Thursday by Labrador.
“The immediate reaction is going to be Walt Minnick is ahead by 10 points,” Labrador told the Statesman. “I could have just kept it internally, but the poll is really good for us because it shows that when people get to know the two candidates, we win.”
Moore’s poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday among a sample of 300 voters in the 1st Congressional District. Moore said there’s a 95 percent chance that the sampling error falls within a range of plus or minus 6 percent.
“Obviously Walt has a lot of support, but we’re not focused on polls,” said Minnick’s campaign manager, John Foster. “Walt is spending his time continuing to work hard and be an effective leader for Idaho.”
Moore Information is a leading GOP polling firm based in Portland. Bob Moore is also Gov. Butch Otter’s pollster and has worked for top Idaho Republicans since 1986.
Among those who weren’t sure about the race, 48 percent are Republican and 15 percent Democrats, presenting an advantage to Labrador, the pollsters say. Undecided voters favor a generic Republican over a generic Democrat 42 percent to 15 percent. Among voters who are aware of Labrador, the race is a statistical dead heat, with Labrador at 34 percent, Minnick at 33 percent.
Labrador, a two-term state representative from Eagle, upset Vaughn Ward in the May 25 primary. He has hired Washington, D.C.-based Morgan Meredith for national fundraising and Washington media consultant Jim Innocenzi, whose clients include Idaho GOP Sens. Mike Crapo and Jim Risch.
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