Cantwell Upside Down on Her Reelect: Less than Half Say She Deserves Reelection
September 21, 2011
Results of our recent survey in Washington show Maria Cantwell’s reelect number in negative territory with just 38% of Washingtonians saying she deserves reelection while 46% say it’s time for a new person. Additionally, her hard reelect score (those people who say she deserves reelection regardless of who runs against her) stands at just 23%.
Cantwell Vote to Reelect
“Do you think Maria Cantwell has performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance to do better?”
IF DESERVES REELECTION: “Would you vote for Maria Cantwell regardless of who runs against her?”
Importantly, Independent voters are quite negative on this question with just a third (34%) saying she deserves reelection while almost half (48%) say it’s time for a new person. Additionally, Cantwell’s hard reelect among Independents stands at just 16%.
Not surprisingly, Republicans are widely negative on this question with 75% saying it’s time for a new person and just 13% saying she deserves to be reelected. To make matters worse for Cantwell, almost a quarter of Democrats (24%) also say it’s time for a new person.
Senator Cantwell does fare better with women than she does with men but nonetheless she is negative with both groups, only 36% of men and 40% of women believe she deserves reelection.
By media market her numbers are widely negative in the Spokane and Yakima media markets but even in the vast Seattle media market she is upside down with 40% of voters in that area saying she deserves reelection and 46% saying it’s time for a new person.
These numbers are strikingly different from the last time she ran in 2006. In August of that year we recorded her reelect number at 53% and her new person score at 37%. In fact, in 2006 her hard reelect score (37%) was statistically the same as her total reelect score today (38%). A lot has changed since then and not, apparently, in Maria Cantwell’s favor.
This memo contains findings from a survey of Washington voters. A total of 500 interviews were conducted September 10-11, 2011 among a representative sample of voters, statewide. The potential sampling error associated with this survey is +/- 4% at the 95% confidence level.
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