2012 Political Outlook in California’s Ten Most Competitive Congressional Districts

The following memo contains results of an automated telephone poll conducted among 1,023 registered voters in ten competitive California Congressional Districts.  The purpose of this survey is to provide an overview of the political landscape in these districts where a competitive race is likely, and provide recommendations on message approach.  Approximately 100 interviews were conducted in each of the following districts: C.D. 3, 7, 9, 16, 21, 24, 26, 31, 41 and 47.  Results provided in this memo reflect the sentiments of the entire sample of competitive districts, combined.

Voters in California’s most competitive Congressional Districts are divided in their partisan preference for Congress and are, likewise, divided in their assessment of President Obama’s performance and latest jobs proposal.    However, a majority prefer a candidate who will go to Washington, D.C. to change Congress over a candidate who would go to D.C. to help Obama enact his agenda.  The job situation and the budget deficit and debt are the leading economic concerns, but a plurality believes Congress should give a higher priority to keeping the deficit down than to boosting the economy.  When it comes to federal income taxes, tax reform and elimination of corporate loopholes is considered more important than increasing taxes on the wealthy.  Voters are also divided on the state’s Dream Act and a plurality would send illegal immigrants home rather than securing borders and giving illegal residents a pathway to citizenship.  Finally, neither the Tea Party nor the Occupy Wall Street movement is impressive to a majority of voters.    More details follow.

Political Climate.  The political climate in these ten congressional districts is very competitive;  43% favor a Democrat for Congress, 40% a Republican and 17% don’t have a preference at this time.  This competitiveness is further demonstrated by voters’ current rating of President Obama’s performance; 49% approve and 49% disapprove. However, among voters with strong feelings, Obama’s rating is negative; 27% strongly approve, while 38% strongly disapprove of the president’s efforts.   Not surprisingly, Democrats and Democrat constituencies prefer a Democrat for Congress and are more likely to be positive about the President, while Republicans prefer a Republican for Congress and widely disapprove of Obama.  DTS/other voters narrowly favor a GOP candidate (36-31%) and narrowly disapprove of Obama’s performance (45% approve/52% disapprove).  Women prefer a Democrat for Congress, while men are evenly divided in their partisanship; however when it comes to Obama’s performance, women and men are evenly divided.

While voters are divided in their partisan preferences and rating of the President, a clear majority (55%) favors a candidate who wants to change the way things are done in Congress compared to just over a third (36%) who favor a candidate who will go to Washington, D.C. to help President Obama enact his agenda.  There is majority support for the candidate who wants to change Congress among men and women alike, among white and DTS/other voters and a plurality of Latino voters agree.  Further, among voters who expressed no partisan preference for Congress, the candidate who wants to change Congress was favored by a 61-18% margin over the candidate who wants to help the Obama agenda.

“How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?”

“Do you prefer a candidate who will go to Washington, D.C. to help President Obama enact his agenda or a candidate who will go to Washington, D.C. to change the way things are done in Congress?”

Obama Jobs Plan.  Voters are divided over the President’s latest jobs plan;  43% support, 39% oppose and 19% have no opinion.  Democrats widely support “the $450 billion plan aimed at creating jobs” (65-16%), while GOP voters widely oppose the plan by an identical margin (16-65%).  DTS women and DTS voters age 45+ oppose the plan but DTS men and younger DTS voters are divided.    Latino voters support Obama’s plan, 53-30%, while Anglo voters are divided.

“President Obama recently proposed a $450 billion plan aimed at creating jobs.  Given what you know about it, do you support or oppose the plan?”

Health Care. Fewer than four-in-ten voters  would repeal the President’s health care reform plan, but only one-in-four would leave it as is.  Today, 39% would repeal the plan, while 34% would “amend and improve it”, 23% would “leave it alone and see how it works” and only 2% would “leave it the way it is and make no changes.”  Almost seven-in-ten Republicans (69%) would repeal Obama care, while fewer than one-in-seven Democrats (15%) favor repeal.  Among DTS/other voters, 41% favor repeal, 34% would amend and improve and 24% would leave it alone.  Women and men hold similar views on this issue.  Among Latino voters, 31% favor repeal, 41% favor amendment and 27% favor leaving it alone.

“What should be done about the Obama health care reform plan that passed Congress last year — repeal it, amend it and improve it, leave it alone and see how it works, or leave it the way it is and make no changes?”

Economic Issues.  A plurality of voters (48%) in the ten districts believe they are worse off today financially than when Barack Obama became President, while 19% say they are better off and 31% say there has been no change.  Voters who are worse off widely disapprove of Obama’s performance (19% approve, 79% disapprove), but voters who believe they are better off widely approve of Obama’s performance (92/8%) as do voters who have seen no change in their personal financial picture (70/28%).  Almost two-in-three GOP voters say they are worse off financially, as do a majority of DTS/other voters.  Latino voters’ situations reflect that of the sample as a whole, 49% are worse off, 18% are better off and 31% have seen no change in the past three years.

“Are you and your family better off or worse off financially than you were when Barack Obama became President in January 2009?”

The job situation is voters’ leading economic concern (33%), followed by the budget deficit and debt (26%), Social Security and Medicare (15%), financial and housing markets (14%) and rising prices (8%).  The job situation is the leading economic concern among Moderates and Liberals (Democrats, Republicans and DTS/others alike) but the deficit and debt is the leader among Conservatives (Democrats, Republicans and DTS/others alike).  Senior citizens are equally concerned about jobs, the deficit/debt and Social Security/Medicare, and those age 65 and older are more concerned about Social Security than any other age group.  Female Latinos and Latinos age 18-44 are more likely to be concerned about the job situation, but male and older Latinos are equally concerned about the job situation and the deficit/debt.

“Which one of the following economic issues concerns you the most — the budget deficit and debt, the financial and housing markets, Social Security and Medicare, the job situation, or rising prices?”

More specifically on Congressional economic priorities, there is a slight preference for Congress to keep the budget deficit down (50%) over boosting the economy and risking larger deficits (41%).   Not surprisingly, Republicans widely favor keeping the deficit down (73%), while a majority of Democrats prefer boosting the economy and risking larger deficits (59%).  Among DTS/other voters, keeping the deficit down is favored 54-39%.  Among Latinos, keeping down the deficit is favored by 49%, while boosting the economy and risking larger deficits is favored by 44%.  Men and women are on the same page on this question, as both narrowly favor keeping the deficit down.

“Should Congress be more concerned about keeping the budget deficit down, even though it may mean it will take longer for the economy to recover, or should Congress be more concerned about boosting the economy even though it may mean larger deficits in the future?”

When it comes to federal income taxes, tax reform is a higher priority than increasing taxes on the wealthy.  Fully 60% believe “reforming the federal tax system by eliminating loopholes so that big corporations can’t avoid paying taxes” is more important than increasing taxes on wealthy people (30%).    Tax reform is rated more important by women and men like, along with Republicans, Conservative Democrats, DTS/others, Latinos and Anglos.  However, Moderate Democrats are divided between the two options and Liberal Democrats prefer increasing taxes on the wealthy.

“When it comes to federal income taxes, which is more important — increasing taxes on wealthy people, or reforming the federal tax system by eliminating loopholes so that big corporations can’t avoid paying taxes?”

Illegal Immigration.   Voters in these districts are divided over the California “Dream Act;” 48% support and 45% oppose a law allowing illegal immigrants who have graduated from a California high school to pay “in-state” tuition at California universities.  Democrats widely support the law (69-25%), while GOP voters are in wide opposition (30-63%) along with a majority of DTS/others (39-53%).  Latino voters support the law (58-37%), while Anglos are divided (46-46%).  Women and voters age 18-64 narrowly support the law, but men are divided and voters age 65+ oppose the Dream Act.

“Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a law that allowed illegal immigrants who have graduated from a California high school to pay ‘in-state’ tuition at California Universities?”

However on the question of illegal immigration in general, a plurality (50%) believe illegal immigrants should be “sent back to their homeland and then apply to this country legally,” while four-in-ten (39%) believe “we need to make our borders more secure and give those already here a path to citizenship.”  The remaining 11% have no opinion.  Among GOP voters there is wide support for sending illegal immigrants back to their homeland and a plurality of DTS/other voters would also send them back, but a majority of Democrats favor the path to citizenship.  Latino voters favor the pathway over sending illegal immigrants back (51-42%), while more than half of Anglos would send them back.  Women and men are in agreement, as pluralities of both genders would return illegal immigrants.

“Some people say there are 10 million illegal immigrants already in this country and what we need to do is make our borders more secure and give those already here a path to citizenship.  Other people say illegal immigrants have broken our laws and should be sent back to their homeland and then apply to immigrate to this country legally.  With whom do you agree?”

Images of the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street.  Overall, there isn’t a great deal of difference between perceptions of the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street among voters in these districts.  The Tea Party is approved of by 38% and disapproved of by 46%, while Occupy Wall Street’s ratio is 40% approve, 37% disapprove.  There are major differences by party; Republicans approve of the Tea Party, 62/19%, while disapproving of Occupy, 19/57%.  Democrats approve of Occupy, 58/20%, while disapproving of the Tea Party, 18/68%.  Latinos approve of Occupy, 46/30%, but disapprove of the Tea Party, 29/49%.  Women and men are divided in their views of Occupy and men are divided on the Tea Party, but women are negative about the Tea Party.  Just 8% approve of both groups, while only 9% disapprove of both.  In general, voters who approve of the Tea Party lean toward the views of Republicans while voters who approve of Occupy lean toward the views of Democrats.

“Do you approve or disapprove of the ___?”

Summary. The results of this survey clearly show that these districts are in play in 2012 for both parties.  But the candidates who will prevail will be those who can demonstrate their understanding of the need to change the way things are done in Washington and address economic concerns – whether it is job related, Medicare and Social Security problems, budget and deficit concerns or housing issues.

Currently Republicans have an edge with DTS/other voters but it is only a slight edge, 36% to 31%.  In order to win in these districts, Republicans will have to capture a significant majority of them.  Issues matter but the typical GOP versus Democrat national campaign rhetoric could cause trouble for partisans on both sides.  These voters are looking for solutions and the survey results show that few of the issues overwhelmingly favor the Democrat or Republican position.  Like statewide candidates in purple or light blue states, Republicans looking to win here must demonstrate their understanding of the need to solve the many problems facing their constituencies without appearing overly partisan.