Oregon’s First Congressional District: Poll Update

January 16, 2012

The campaign to replace David Wu in Oregon’s First Congressional District is going right down to the wire.  In a Moore Information poll of 300 likely voters in the district, conducted January 11-12, Cornilles was supported by 42%, Bonamici by 46%, while 10% were undecided and 2% said they wouldn’t vote for either candidate.  Not surprisingly, Bonamici led in the Multnomah County portion of the district, but the race was tied elsewhere.

As ballots begin arriving in voters’ mailboxes, Cornilles appears to be surging.  This surge is likely the primary reason the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee has continued their aggressive spending and also helps explain the recent purchase of more than $200,000 in the Portland media market by the Democrat controlled House Majority Fund Super PAC.

Cornilles is benefiting from a political environment that is more negative for Democrats than it was during the 2010 election.  Currently, more than six-in-ten district voters believe things in the country are off on the wrong track and just 48% approve of Barack Obama’s performance as president, while 48% disapprove.  By contrast in October 2010, Obama’s performance was 53/44% approve.

Both Cornilles and Bonamici still enjoy positive images.  Despite nearly a million dollars spent in negative advertising against him, Cornilles is rated favorably by 42%, unfavorably by 36%, while the remaining 22% have no opinion or have never heard of the Republican.  Bonamici’s image is 48% favorable, 33% unfavorable and 19% no opinion/never heard.

This poll was conducted for the Cornilles campaign, by telephone, using live interviewers, January 11-12, 2012, among a representative sample of 300 likely voters in the district. Cell phone only households were included as part of the sample.  Forty eight percent of the sample are registered Democrats, 35% Republicans and the remainder are non-affiliated/Independent/others.   The potential sampling error is plus or minus 6% at the 95% confidence level.



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