Washington Voters Mixed on Health of Medicare System; Not Sold on Ryan Plan
August 01, 2011
It’s often said in politics that if you are educating, you are losing. So, when we talk about the long term solvency of Medicare and the soundness of the system it’s important to assess voters’ perceptions and determine what, if anything, they think needs to be done to protect the program. We asked some questions on a recent statewide survey in Washington State to measure what voters thought about the health of the Medicare Program and what they thought of the Ryan Plan to fix the current problems.
We first asked voters about their knowledge of the financial condition of the Medicare system. On this question respondents were split between thinking Medicare needed a “complete overhaul/major changes” (44%) and thinking Medicare was “pretty much okay/needs minor modifications” (46%). Younger voters (both men and women), Republicans and Independents were more likely to think that the system needed a “complete overhaul/major changes,” while Democrats and older voters (again both men and women) were more likely to think the system was “pretty much okay/needs minor modifications.”
Perceptions of the Financial Condition of Medicare
“Based on what you know or have heard about the financial condition of Medicare, would you say …”
Moreover, when Democrats and Republicans are broken down by age, there is a very significant difference on this question between younger and older Republicans. Fully 65% of younger GOP voters believe Medicare needs major changes while 27% think only minor changes are needed. But older GOP voters are split with 44% believing just minor changes are needed and 45% believing major changes are needed. In fact, older Republicans and younger Democrats look very similar on this measure. Not surprisingly, older Democrats are the least likely to believe the system needs major changes with 66% saying the system needs minor changes and 25% believing it needs major changes. To be sure, party does matter here but age is a very significant determinant in voters’ views and transcends party labels to some degree.
So why are perceptions of Medicare’s financial conditions important? Well, if we are going to address major changes in Medicare it helps to have voters actually understand that there is a problem. Today, in Washington at least, a slim plurality does not believe that to be the case. The significance of this can be seen in response to another question measuring voter support for the Ryan Plan.
Overall the Ryan Plan has very little support in Washington State. Today, just over half (56%) of the state’s voters are familiar with the Ryan Plan, and among those who are aware of it, just 26% of voters support the Ryan Plan, while 58% are opposed.
The Ryan Plan is opposed in all regions of the state and among all age groups among those who are aware of it. In fact, it is the youngest voters who are least favorable toward the Plan, despite their inclination to believe that Medicare needs major changes. Also, Independents, a key group in Washington State, are widely opposed (12% favor/57% oppose), despite the fact that nearly half of this group (47%) believes Medicare needs major changes. Democrats are a pretty monolithic bloc on this question, with just 4% favoring the Ryan Plan and 89% opposed. Republicans are the only demographic group to support the Plan (64% favor). Age is not a big factor in Republican support here. Younger Republicans are slightly more likely than older Republicans to support the Ryan Plan, but support among both GOP age groups is over 60%.
Ryan Plan
“Over the past few months have you seen, read or heard anything about the Republican plan to reform Medicare? This is also known as the Ryan Plan. Based on what you know or have heard do you favor or oppose the Plan?”
% favor/oppose among the 56% who are aware of the Ryan Plan
Ryan Plan: Key Subgroups
One key measurement here points to the importance of voters understanding the overall financial condition of Medicare. Among voters who think the system needs major changes, sentiment is split evenly on the Ryan Plan (41% support, 41% opposed). However, among voters who think that Medicare is in good shape, the Ryan Plan is widely opposed (16-72%).
While attention and coverage of the Ryan Plan has waned as the debt ceiling debate dominated the news cycles, the issue is not going away. Voters’ concerns over changes to Medicare are real, and in many cases, predicated on the fact that they actually believe the system is just fine the way it is. Those voters may buy into minor modifications, but a major overhaul of the very popular system is not seen as necessary by a plurality of Washington voters at this point. Until those views evolve, any attempt to significantly change Medicare will be met with strong resistance.
Finally, we asked a question to measure sentiment on what should be done with Medicare, offering respondents two options and asking which they agree with most.
“Mr. Green points out the non-partisan congressional budget office says Medicare will go bankrupt in nine years if nothing is done. To prevent this and to protect current Medicare recipients, the Republican plan would not change Medicare for people age 55 and older, but when younger people reach retirement age they would be able to choose a medical plan similar to a Medicare Advantage Plan that would be paid for by Medicare. Mr. Green believes this would keep Medicare solvent and help reduce the federal budget deficit.
Mr. Black doesn’t believe Medicare is going bankrupt and rather than ending Medicare as we know it and ensure it is adequately funded, and help reduce the federal budget deficit, Mr. Black would end tax cuts for millionaires and subsidies to oil companies and bring our troops home from Afghanistan.”
Majorities among Republicans (both young and old), Eastern Washington voters and, surprisingly, younger women, sided with “Green” (Medicare is going bankrupt/needs changes) as did a plurality of younger voters. Democrats widely supported the “Black” position (Medicare is not going bankrupt/tax millionaires), while there was no consensus among Independents.
Green vs. Black on Medicare: Key Subgroups
Taken together these questions point to one overarching problem the country has in addressing the solvency of the Medicare system: Many voters are not yet convinced the system is in serious trouble and until they are it is unlikely they will support any government action to significantly change the way the program is administered. Furthermore, those who do attempt to resolve Medicare’s problems could – and probably will – face serious political opposition from voters unconvinced that major changes are needed.
