Signed, Sealed...
... But Not So Fast. Insiders' Predictions For WH 2008 May Not Match Public's Vision

By Gwen Glazer , NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Friday, April 29, 2005

With visions of 2008 dancing in their heads, National Journal 's political insiders made their parties' picks for the presidential nod and came up with two senators, one seemingly obvious and one seemingly unlikely: Hillary Rodham Clinton and George Allen .

This week's survey combined both the political and congressional respondents -- 85 Republicans and 90 Democrats in all -- and gave each potential White House contender five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. The New York Democrat ran away with her party's vote, collecting 407 points and 68 first places. The Virginia Republican's tally was smaller, with 229 points. His 19 first places tied with Arizona Sen. John McCain , whose points totaled 217.

That matchup raises a perennial question: How important is name recognition, even three years out? Although insiders know Allen -- one said he was "Reagan-like in his appeal to GOP activists"; another called him a "real dark horse who should not be underestimated" -- he might make voters scratch their heads.

The Virginia senator, nearing the end of his first term, is not a national household name. He won a messy 2000 squeaker filled with controversy over transportation and taxes, and in a December Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll , just 2 percent of GOP primary voters chose Allen as the 2008 nominee. Allen fared even worse in a Marist College survey of Republicans in February.(Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and McCain came in first and second respectively in both polls, each with more than 20 percent of the vote.)

Clinton doesn't have the same problem -- she has different ones. After four years as a senator and eight years as first lady, it remains to be seen whether Clinton 's high profile will work to her benefit or her detriment. Some insiders noted her high negatives and lack of "real or perceived executive experience," but others cited her fund-raising capabilities and political skills. One suggested, "If Hillary gets in, Hillary wins -- as simple as that."

Unlike Allen, she appears already to be a favorite among Democratic voters. Democrats in both the AP and Marist surveys put her well above former running-mates John Kerry and John Edwards , who come in as her next closest competitors; 46 percent of Marist respondents said they wanted her to run in 2008 and 49 percent said they did not. Forty percent of respondents to a February CNN/Gallup/ USA Today poll preferred Clinton by 15 points over Kerry and 23 points over Edwards.

But Clinton herself raises a second perennial question: Can she win? A Moore Information (R) poll from March showed two prominent Republicans beating Clinton : McCain winning 49 percent to 38 percent and Giuliani winning 47 percent to 41 percent. Margins were tighter but the results the same in a Quinnipiac survey during the same month.

The Marist survey showed Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice losing to the New York senator by 8 points. Clinton beat Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 50 percent to 47 percent in a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) survey and 45 percent to 37 percent in a January Westhill Partners/Hotline poll .

No surveys have measured Clinton vs. Allen -- yet.